Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:12:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68ae…ea33 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$1
world 29% −$5
politics 12% $0
crypto 8% −$1
tech 7% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 60% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 -0.5% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 16 -0.9% -10.3% 44% 0% -9.7%
all 48 -1.5% -10.9% 31% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage337d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 44¢ 40¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $28 +$1 +3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $70 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $34 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $53 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $4 $0 -10%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $28 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $19 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $30 −$2 -8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $15 $0 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25? Aug 10 $73 +$2 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? Jul 26 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Jul 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 24 $69 $0 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 23 $79 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 23 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $5 $0 -5%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 23 $71 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 23 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Jul 22 $82 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 44¢ $32 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $29 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $17 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $11 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $27 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $28 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $29 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $23 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $23 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $28 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $28 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $22 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $28 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $4 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $25 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.80 · official $28.80 (match) · 148 history records