Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:21:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x68ab…b99e
other · 152 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$2,110 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,109 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$780
Realized+$2,109
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses36 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)150 / 152
Avg bet$1,330
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 2 History 150 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$28
14 days+$64
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $417 $417 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $362 $363 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $2,298 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $7,805 −$8 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,612 −$5 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $2,678 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $82 +$51 +62%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $69 +$49 +70%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,082 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,750 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,133 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,589 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $539 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $773 +$1 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $805 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,978 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $1,172 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $3,000 −$4 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $3,141 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $2,557 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,793 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $7,198 −$8 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,545 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $2,399 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $5,876 −$7 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,624 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $1,629 −$3 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $1,656 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $1,594 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $1,377 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 26 $1,730 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $4,419 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,807 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $3,690 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$77
politics 37% −$86
sports 11% +$2,297
economics 2% −$5
culture 2% −$7
world 1% −$25
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $417 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,190 47h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,191 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $786 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $786 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,106 3d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,107 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,206 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,208 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,373 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,375 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,152 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,153 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,293 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,295 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,168 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,169 6d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 61¢ $82 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,302 8d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $69 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $1,303 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,080 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,082 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,160 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,161 10d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,132 11d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,133 11d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 11d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $538 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.8% -1.6% 14% 14% -9.4%
≤30d 27 -2.6% -11.9% 11% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 104 -6.6% -15.5% 9% 5% -9.4%
all 150 +0.8% -8.8% 24% 11% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 11% -8.6%
10% -17.5% 11% -17.3%
15% -25.5% 9% -25.3%
20% -32.8% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $779.84 · official $779.84 (match) · 485 history records