Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68aa…ea5e crypto 417 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$40,187 (-3%) realized −$40,206 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate81%338W / 78L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,067per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$365est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2,901now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,592
7 days−$623
14 days+$220
30 days−$47,572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$2,357
sports 31% +$3,686
world 14% −$49,118
other 11% +$3,031
finance 6% +$1,330
tech 1% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -4.5% -13.6% 85% 9% -10.2%
≤30d 136 -15.3% -23.3% 71% 8% -18.6%
≤90d 329 -10.0% -18.6% 79% 5% -13.2%
all 416 +0.2% -9.4% 81% 6% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 6% -12.3%
10% -18.1% 5% -20.7%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 4% -28.3%
20% -33.2% 4% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$3,990) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$783 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$2,901
Realized−$40,206
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses338 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$365
Open positions1
Markets (closed)416 / 417
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$3,067
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 416 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,881 $2,901 +$19 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6,422 +$90 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $293 +$32 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $681 +$16 +2%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$71 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $422 +$8 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2,730 −$52 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,943 −$1,930 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,821 +$78 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $793 +$9 +1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,022 +$84 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,900 −$40 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,347 +$20 +2%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,486 +$106 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $965 +$58 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $1,517 +$19 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $251 +$19 +8%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $651 +$51 +8%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14,274 +$183 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $1,682 +$18 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $3,958 +$42 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $3,315 +$43 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $1,366 +$8 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $987 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,123 +$16 +1%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $890 +$4 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,098 +$224 +11%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $1,001 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $127 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $5,370 +$37 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $663 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3,087 +$49 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $3,075 +$27 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,711 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5,563 +$28 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 10 $16 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 10 $3,692 −$24 -1%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $985 +$15 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $890 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $6,180 −$145 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $4,293 +$19 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3,001 +$50 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $626 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $336 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $700 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $599 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $537 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,323 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $990 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $265 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $24 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $176 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $93 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $51 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $90 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $90 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $90 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $90 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $101 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $117 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $135 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $156 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1,630 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,900.86 · official $2,900.86 (match) · 3500 history records