Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:38:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x68a7…1bb8 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$2
other 14% $0
politics 5% +$2
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.9% -11.2% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +30.3% +17.9% 37% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 19 +30.3% +17.9% 37% 11% -9.4%
all 36 +14.2% +3.3% 39% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 8% -9.1%
10% -6.6% 3% -17.8%
15% -15.6% 3% -25.8%
20% -23.9% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage457d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 53¢ 60¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $61 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 -9%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $47 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $34 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $111 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $5 $0 +9%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lois Boisson win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above $2,800 on May 30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 28 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 28 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $18 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $9 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $3 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $30 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $30 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $16 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $18 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $34 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $5 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $17 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $9 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $28 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $16 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $31 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $31 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $24 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.80 · official $33.93 (match) · 119 history records