Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x68a0…9cfd politics 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%22W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$12
other 27% −$12
sports 21% −$5
crypto 10% −$2
culture 4% $0
world 3% −$6
finance 2% +$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 92 -0.4% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 123 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses22 / 101
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage109d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $37 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $185 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $77 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $146 −$1 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $53 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $105 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $154 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 14 $50 $0 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $632 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 11 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $148 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $156 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 09 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $166 $0 -0%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 08 $51 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 08 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 08 $58 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 08 $170 −$4 -2%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 08 $52 −$1 -3%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $154 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 07 $107 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $150 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $80 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $223 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $198 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $168 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $46 −$1 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $39 $0 -1%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $52 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $166 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $249 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 1h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $36 12d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $37 12d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 20d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $41 20d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $54 28d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $54 28d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $59 39d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 39d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 39d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 39d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $52 39d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $53 40d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $56 40d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $56 40d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $66 40d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $66 40d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $48 40d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $48 40d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $21 40d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $57 40d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $57 40d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $21 40d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $45 40d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $45 41d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 41d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 41d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $52 41d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $25 41d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $28 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.15 · official $57.15 (match) · 480 history records