Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
68 0x689f…b3dd world 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,721 (-19%) realized −$1,473 · open −$248
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$520per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2,252
30 days−$1,855
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$1,790
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 42% -33.2%
≤90d 14 -16.4% -24.4% 50% 43% -26.7%
all 14 -16.4% -24.4% 50% 43% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 43% -26.7%
10% -31.6% 29% -33.7%
15% -38.2% 14% -40.1%
20% -44.3% 14% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$370 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized−$1,473
Unrealized−$248
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage96d
Avg bet$520
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $187 $174 −$12 (-7%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $408 $173 −$235 (-58%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $113 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2,759 −$1,732 -63%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $149 +$45 +30%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $115 +$101 +87%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $287 −$207 -72%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $111 −$77 -69%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $313 −$313 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $130 +$18 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $70 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $201 +$49 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $1,568 +$91 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1,328 +$241 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $747 +$504 +68%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 22 $275 −$190 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $112 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $113 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $76 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $410 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $97 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $48 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $49 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 79¢ $216 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $115 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $115 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $114 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 19¢ $79 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 20¢ $35 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $937 12d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $110 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $110 14d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $101 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $101 14d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $101 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $101 14d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 63¢ $36 14d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 64¢ $111 14d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 66¢ $50 14d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 14d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $398 14d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $149 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $149 14d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $68 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $68 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.89 · official $458.89 (match) · 48 history records