Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
68 0x689c…2697 other 1681 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+1%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1678W / 3L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$4
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$5
sports 47% +$9
world 1% $0
politics 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 438 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1140 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1681 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 1681 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1678 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1681 / 1681
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1681 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Emam Ashour: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-6.5) vs G2 (+6.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Fabián Ruiz: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Haissem Hassan: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Trezeguet: 3+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Thomas Meunier: 2+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Thomas Meunier: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Timothy Castagne be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Dodi Lukébakio be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Pedri: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Marc Pubill: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rodri: 3+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Gavi Paez: 3+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Eric García: 2+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Goransson/King (-1.5) vs Frantzen/Haase (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Frantzen/Haase vs. Goransson/King: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Simone vs. Bosio: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bebop (-3.5) vs RUSTEC (+3.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-3.5) vs Bebop (+3.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-6.5) vs Bebop (+6.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs G2 Ares (+3.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $129 Week of June 15 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-9.5) vs G2 Ares (+9.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalun Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Anis Ben Slimane: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alexander Bernhardsson: 2+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Victor Nilsson-Lindelöf: 2+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Sebastian Tounekti: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Elias Saad: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Benjamin Nygren: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
Will anyone say "Suck" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rani Khedira: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Gustaf Nilsson: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Anis Ben Slimane: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Herman Johansson: 3+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Herman Johansson: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 17m
Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 24m
Emam Ashour: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 31m
Fabián Ruiz: 4+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Haissem Hassan: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Trezeguet: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Thomas Meunier: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Thomas Meunier: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 100¢ $5 2h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-6.5) vs G2 (+6.5) BUY G2 100¢ $5 2h
Pedri: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will Timothy Castagne be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 3h
Will Dodi Lukébakio be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during meeting with French President? BUY No 98¢ $4 4h
Marc Pubill: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Rodri: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Gavi Paez: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Eric García: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 5h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) BUY EDward Gaming 100¢ $5 6h
Set Handicap: Goransson/King (-1.5) vs Frantzen/Haase (+1.5) BUY Frantzen/Haase 100¢ $5 7h
Frantzen/Haase vs. Goransson/King: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 7h
Simone vs. Bosio: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 7h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 9h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $129 Week of June 15 BUY Yes 100¢ $5 9h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bebop (-3.5) vs RUSTEC (+3.5) BUY RUSTEC 100¢ $5 9h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-6.5) vs Bebop (+6.5) BUY Bebop 100¢ $5 10h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-3.5) vs Bebop (+3.5) BUY Bebop 100¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records