Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x689c…6b1e sports 717 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$2,927 (-0%) realized −$2,931 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +269% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +173% what you keep after slip
Net edge+173%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%383W / 325L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$823per market
Trades / day73.6pace
Fees−$7,551est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$15,964
other 8% +$66
crypto 4% −$1,800
world 0% +$498
tech 0% +$394
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+233.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +218.7% +188.4% 34% 34% -46.2%
≤30d 447 +349.0% +306.3% 52% 50% -36.3%
≤90d 708 +269.0% +233.9% 54% 50% -24.4%
all 708 +269.0% +233.9% 54% 50% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +233.9% 50% -24.4%
10% +201.9% 47% -31.6%
15% ← realistic here +172.8% 42% -38.2%
20% +146.0% 35% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +269% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,045) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +200% → late +338% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$481 vs −$619 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$594
Realized−$2,931
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses383 / 325
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$7,551
Open positions9
Markets (closed)708 / 717
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$823
Trades / day73.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 708 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 59¢ 62¢ $129 $134 +$6 (+4%)
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) University War 72¢ 80¢ $77 $86 +$9 (+11%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 54¢ $81 $82 +$1 (+1%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 63¢ 62¢ $81 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 73¢ 74¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Dominion Nation 65¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Will Club ABB win on 2026-05-14? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 +$69 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $130 +$81 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $76 −$1 -1%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $77 +$49 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $131 −$6 -5%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $77 +$74 +95%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $131 −$131 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $138 −$138 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $128 +$87 +68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $231 −$88 -38%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $83 +$65 +79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $78 +$140 +179%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$7 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $381 −$8 -2%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $88 +$54 +61%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $371 −$371 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $374 −$374 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $415 −$415 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $349 −$7 -2%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $391 +$237 +61%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $358 +$340 +95%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $397 −$397 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $443 −$443 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $407 +$316 +78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $380 −$2 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $384 +$222 +58%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $294 +$191 +65%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $206 −$206 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $259 +$134 +52%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $349 +$242 +69%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $399 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $326 +$214 +66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $332 −$25 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $304 +$199 +65%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $506 −$506 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $400 −$400 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $443 −$443 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $497 −$497 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $347 −$347 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $480 +$526 +110%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $507 −$25 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $451 −$10 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $263 −$263 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $269 −$269 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $507 −$507 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 7¢ $13 14m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $51 16m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $79 16m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $53 35m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $82 40m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $82 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Alpha Dominion Nation 46¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Alpha Dominion Nation 45¢ $21 1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 63¢ $82 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 65¢ $83 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $7 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $142 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $81 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $11 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 91¢ $198 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $52 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $78 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 99¢ $6 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 97¢ $118 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $71 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $76 14h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $77 14h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $7 15h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $143 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $118 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $74 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $74 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $77 24h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 72¢ $78 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.52 · official $531.58 · 3500 history records