Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x689a…779e
other · 107 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,635 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,212 · open +$1,731
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$13,716
Realized−$5,212
Unrealized+$1,731
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses42 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions62
Markets (closed)92 / 107
Avg bet$9,064
Trades / day126.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 62 History 92 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$443
7 days+$808
14 days+$7,599
30 days−$5,212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,464 $2,466 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 48¢ 73¢ $1,488 $2,267 +$779 (+52%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 18¢ 46¢ $864 $2,169 +$1,305 (+151%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 11¢ 44¢ $411 $1,579 +$1,168 (+284%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $122 $776 +$654 (+537%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $122 $744 +$622 (+511%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $771 $586 −$185 (-24%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $122 $554 +$432 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $122 $428 +$306 (+251%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $384 $283 −$101 (-26%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $127 $231 +$104 (+82%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $108 $182 +$74 (+69%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $112 $165 +$53 (+48%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $167 $147 −$20 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $310 $146 −$164 (-53%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $29 $139 +$110 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $29 $132 +$103 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $29 $117 +$88 (+303%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $29 $94 +$65 (+225%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $97 $91 −$6 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $29 $79 +$50 (+173%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $66 $49 −$16 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $116 $38 −$78 (-67%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $29 $37 +$8 (+29%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $29 $34 +$5 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $78,937 +$190 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $702 +$100 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $28 −$17 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $58 −$47 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $8,499 −$303 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5,082 +$3,282 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 09 $14,363 +$1,265 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 09 $2,484 −$2,357 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 09 $133 +$401 +301%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 09 $321 −$275 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $298 −$202 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $46,458 +$8,627 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $34,465 −$434 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $70 +$41 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 29 $1,159 −$733 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 29 $270 −$16 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 29 $143 −$133 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $2,580 −$353 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $102 +$248 +243%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $6 +$133 +2308%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $30,686 −$8,688 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $10,468 +$1,974 +19%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $6,872 −$837 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $14,697 −$8,727 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $662 −$639 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $686 −$668 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $21 +$33 +152%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $29,370 +$578 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $24 +$21 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $17 +$188 +1097%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $29 +$172 +595%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,963 +$135 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $37 +$26 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $15 +$23 +154%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $8,812 −$8,778 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $17,299 −$14,594 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $82 +$891 +1083%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,003 −$918 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $843 +$1,202 +143%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $23,563 −$13,970 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $222 −$151 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $21,227 −$18,801 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $7,799 +$25,425 +326%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $71,782 −$3,784 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$3,116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 28m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 29m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 29m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $33 29m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 29m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 44m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 44m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 45m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $35 48m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 48m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 48m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $85 48m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 48m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 51m
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $37 52m
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 53m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $65 54m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 56m
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $46 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $46 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $38 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $131 11h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $682 11h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 12h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $43 12h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $255 12h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $116 12h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2,761 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -29.1% -35.8% 33% 20% -8.9%
≤30d 92 +49.2% +35.0% 46% 30% -10.0%
≤90d 92 +49.2% +35.0% 46% 30% -10.0%
all 92 +49.2% +35.0% 46% 30% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover126.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.0% 30% -10.0%
10% +22.0% 24% -18.6%
15% ← realistic here +10.3% 22% -26.5%
20% -0.6% 21% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,716.20 · official $13,691.66 (match) · 3500 history records