Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6898…19d4 crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$485 (-21%) realized −$393 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%12W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day82.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$186
sports 36% −$121
world 15% −$347
other 10% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -13.6% -21.8% 21% 21% -39.2%
≤30d 56 -13.6% -21.8% 21% 21% -39.2%
≤90d 56 -13.6% -21.8% 21% 21% -39.2%
all 56 -13.6% -21.8% 21% 21% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 21% -39.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 21% -45.0%
15% -36.1% 21% -50.3%
20% -42.4% 21% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$38 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$393
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 44
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions5
Markets (closed)56 / 62
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day82.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $25 $3 −$22 (-87%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$137 +518%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$19 +351%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$105 +323%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$40 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$77 +331%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $236 −$231 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -94%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $67 −$65 -98%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$66 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$20 +374%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$45 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $31 +$169 +550%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $34 +$116 +344%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $129 −$126 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 17m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 14¢ $10 18m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 10¢ $10 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 22m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $20 24m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 13¢ $32 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 52m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $51 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $66 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.44 · official $419.11 · 103 history records