Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:59:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x6897…7ef0
other · 136 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$38 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$38 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 125
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage122d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 1 History 135 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Timberwolves 55¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Heat Wizards 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Warriors Warriors 47¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Suns Suns 83¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Magic vs. Suns Magic 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Magic vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 70¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $67 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $83 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $176 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $71 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $151 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $70 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $80 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $72 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $75 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $151 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $151 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $68 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $84 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $144 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $142 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $134 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $76 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $71 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 24 $130 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $226 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $80 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $88 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 20 $151 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $126 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $146 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $145 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $294 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $73 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $155 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% −$6
politics 22% −$3
sports 17% −$27
economics 4% −$1
crypto 4% $0
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 6d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $67 17d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 21d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 23d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 30d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $86 37d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $86 37d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 38d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 38d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 38d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $71 39d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $71 39d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $71 40d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 40d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 40d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $70 40d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $70 40d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $80 41d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $80 41d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $72 41d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 41d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $75 41d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $75 41d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $77 41d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $77 42d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 42d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 42d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $77 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 103 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 135 -1.7% -11.0% 7% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 4% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 2% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.99 · official $11.99 (match) · 367 history records