Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6893…c41c crypto 378 markets active 6d ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (230 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$646 (-4%) realized −$646 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%216W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day229.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,010
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (230 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -7.4% -16.2% 63% 40% -14.7%
≤30d 378 -8.3% -17.0% 57% 41% -13.7%
≤90d 378 -8.3% -17.0% 57% 41% -13.7%
all 378 -8.3% -17.0% 57% 41% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover229.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 41% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 24% -21.9%
15% -32.2% 15% -29.5%
20% -38.9% 12% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$19 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$646
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses216 / 162
Open positions0
Markets (closed)378 / 378
History coverage5d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day229.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 378 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $82 −$30 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $61 −$9 -15%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $47 −$15 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$15 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $46 −$26 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$25 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$24 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $46 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $96 −$47 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $46 −$13 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $46 +$40 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$62 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $81 −$8 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $86 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$14 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$13 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $46 +$12 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $46 +$13 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $93 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $143 −$66 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $144 −$28 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $70 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $71 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $72 +$24 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $71 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$21 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $31 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $37 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $15 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $31 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $20 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $28 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1093 history records