Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x6891…17f6 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26 (+3%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$12
other 23% +$1
politics 9% $0
sports 7% +$13
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 11 +1.3% -8.4% 45% 9% -7.6%
≤90d 11 +1.3% -8.4% 45% 9% -7.6%
all 32 +4.2% -5.7% 56% 9% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 9% -7.0%
10% -14.7% 6% -15.9%
15% -23.0% 6% -24.0%
20% -30.5% 6% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 92% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.17 per $1 lost it wins $11.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage475d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $53 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $97 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $109 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $57 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $66 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $60 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $11 +$13 +113%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 11 $28 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 10 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 09 $0 $0 +11%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? Apr 09 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $28 $0 +1%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $28 $0 +0%
Abilene Christian vs. Tarleton Mar 20 $15 +$13 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $44 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $53 9h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $45 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $14 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $33 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $26 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $59 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $21 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $50 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $27 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $27 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.94 · official $58.94 (match) · 99 history records