Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x688f…f93b other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-14%) realized −$82 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%6W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$59
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$18
other 43% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-52.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -36.3% -42.4% 28% 28% -32.6%
≤30d 25 -47.3% -52.3% 24% 24% -39.4%
≤90d 25 -47.3% -52.3% 24% 24% -39.4%
all 25 -47.3% -52.3% 24% 24% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.3% 24% -39.4%
10% -56.9% 24% -45.2%
15% -61.1% 24% -50.5%
20% -64.9% 24% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses6 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage10d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $297 $295 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $110 −$7 -6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +69%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +63%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $7 +$9 +126%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +134%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$9 +93%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$7 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $100 35m
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $100 36m
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $100 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 58¢ $103 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $110 2h
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $16 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 8d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.82 · official $294.82 (match) · 56 history records