Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:53:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x688e…64af sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% $0
sports 18% +$24
culture 7% −$25
crypto 6% +$6
other 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 1 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤90d 3 -65.8% -69.1% 33% 0% -17.4%
all 11 -17.7% -25.6% 36% 27% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 27% -10.3%
10% -32.7% 27% -18.9%
15% -39.2% 27% -26.7%
20% -45.1% 27% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage300d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 25 $186 +$5 +3%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 0 - 2 Aston Villa FC? May 25 $8 −$8 -100%
United States vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Apr 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $18 +$23 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7PM ET Feb 11 $14 +$13 +96%
Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jan 30 $24 +$23 +96%
Leeds United vs. Liverpool: O/U 2.5 Dec 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Nov 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Oct 31 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? Sep 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 09 $24 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records