Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x688d…4194 crypto 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,195 (-28%) realized −$2,199 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%28W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$694
14 days−$1,230
30 days−$2,773
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,764
world 1% −$34
other 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +33.8% +21.1% 39% 39% -46.1%
≤30d 99 -7.0% -15.8% 28% 27% -45.6%
≤90d 101 -8.7% -17.4% 28% 27% -45.7%
all 102 -9.1% -17.8% 27% 26% -45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 26% -45.8%
10% -25.6% 25% -51.0%
15% -32.8% 24% -55.7%
20% -39.4% 19% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$57 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$2,199
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses28 / 74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage93d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? Jun 15 $16 −$14 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$27 +86%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $23 +$24 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $273 +$113 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $242 −$18 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $70 −$67 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $106 −$102 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $57 +$44 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $209 +$40 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $131 −$100 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $121 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $90 +$71 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $69 −$15 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 04 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 04 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $32 +$132 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 04 $58 −$30 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $39 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $38 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.87 · official $31.87 (match) · 387 history records