Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
68 0x688d…47f2 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate92%23W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$18
other 13% −$22
sports 3% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +8.5% -1.8% 92% 28% -7.5%
≤30d 25 +8.5% -1.8% 92% 28% -7.5%
≤90d 25 +8.5% -1.8% 92% 28% -7.5%
all 25 +8.5% -1.8% 92% 28% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 28% -7.5%
10% -11.2% 12% -16.3%
15% -19.8% 8% -24.4%
20% -27.7% 8% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$22 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses23 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage2d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? No 62¢ 57¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $61 −$19 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$3 +10%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$12 +114%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$25 -84%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +4%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 62¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 21h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.25 · official $33.86 · 64 history records