Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6885…3708 crypto 1779 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$168 (-7%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%1010W / 769L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$14
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -2.4% -11.7% 71% 71% -11.7%
≤30d 563 -3.9% -13.1% 67% 67% -13.2%
≤90d 878 -11.4% -19.9% 53% 53% -19.3%
all 1779 -6.5% -15.4% 57% 55% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 55% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 53% -24.4%
15% -30.9% 23% -31.7%
20% -37.7% 9% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses1010 / 769
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1779 / 1779
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1779 Trades
no open positions (232 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records