Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6885…29b5 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$66 (+6%) realized +$55 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$63
14 days−$63
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$46
other 12% −$49
sports 9% −$2
economics 8% +$165
world 4% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -12.8% -21.1% 61% 52% -14.0%
≤30d 33 -12.8% -21.1% 61% 52% -14.0%
≤90d 33 -12.8% -21.1% 61% 52% -14.0%
all 36 -4.5% -13.6% 61% 53% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 53% +1.0%
10% -21.9% 42% -8.7%
15% -29.4% 22% -17.5%
20% -36.3% 14% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage142d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 38¢ 81¢ $20 $43 +$23 (+114%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 18¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$27 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$1 +2%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$36 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$14 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$22 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$29 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$7 +26%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 −$19 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 −$18 -69%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$21 -67%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$12 +40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 02 $78 +$153 +196%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 02 $15 +$12 +81%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 26 $20 −$3 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 0m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 17¢ $2 4m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 7m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $23 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $24 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 1h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $20 1h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $70 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.30 · official $28.99 · 89 history records