Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x6884…adcc other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$12
politics 21% −$5
economics 8% −$2
sports 4% −$39
tech 3% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -3.9% -13.0% 10% 6% -9.8%
all 102 -3.8% -12.9% 10% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 6% -9.8%
10% -21.3% 6% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 6% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)102 / 105
History coverage91d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $132 $132 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $212 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $42 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $225 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $23 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 21 $7 +$5 +79%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $204 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $390 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 07 $385 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $191 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $382 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $382 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $352 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $381 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $194 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $183 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $392 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $395 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $181 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $371 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $193 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $182 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $186 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $187 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $193 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 25h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 27h
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $54 39h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $132 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $36 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 23d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 23d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 25d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $42 25d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 25d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 29d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $23 30d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $23 30d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $7 30d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 31d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 31d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.11 · official $213.11 (match) · 287 history records