Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x687e…de8b crypto 245 markets active 2h ago coverage 683d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$255 (-2%) realized −$252 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%111W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$22
politics 33% −$322
crypto 9% −$8
other 2% +$33
culture 1% −$21
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 1 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 84 -10.5% -19.0% 38% 36% -13.1%
all 243 -0.5% -10.0% 46% 39% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 39% -11.9%
10% -18.6% 34% -20.3%
15% -26.5% 30% -28.0%
20% -33.7% 25% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

683d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized−$252
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses111 / 132
Open positions2
Markets (closed)243 / 245
History coverage683d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $245 $243 −$2 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $250 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 16 $15 −$14 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 16 $6 +$20 +337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 16 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 16 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 16 $9 +$21 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 16 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 16 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 16 $8 −$8 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 16 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 16 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 15 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 15 $6 +$7 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 15 $13 −$12 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 15 $26 +$77 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 15 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 15 $25 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 15 $15 +$21 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 15 $25 +$81 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 14 $11 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 14 $39 −$36 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 14 $22 −$21 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 14 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 14 $9 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 14 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 14 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 14 $18 +$31 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 14 $15 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 14 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 14 $8 +$16 +198%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 08 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 08 $10 +$12 +117%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 08 $44 −$9 -20%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $245 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $246 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $250 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $150 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $26 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $30 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.12 · official $392.12 (match) · 764 history records