Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6878…709d crypto 419 markets active 1h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$892 (-0%) realized −$892 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate92%387W / 32L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,681per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$149
14 days+$289
30 days−$2,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$716
sports 15% −$1,889
other 2% +$109
weather 0% +$15
politics 0% +$2
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +1.8% -7.9% 97% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 146 -3.7% -12.9% 86% 3% -11.5%
≤90d 255 -2.4% -11.7% 89% 5% -9.9%
all 419 -1.5% -10.8% 92% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$3,750) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$158 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$892
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses387 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions0
Markets (closed)419 / 419
History coverage533d
Avg bet$1,681
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 419 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $96 +$4 +4%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $925 +$3 +0%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $94 +$6 +6%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $196 +$3 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $431 +$4 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $294 +$6 +2%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $100 +$4 +4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $200 +$2 +1%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $100 +$4 +4%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $95 +$5 +5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $501 +$23 +4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1,024 +$25 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $249 +$5 +2%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $297 +$3 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $97 +$3 +3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $94 +$2 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $248 +$3 +1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $97 +$3 +3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $86 +$1 +1%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $96 +$4 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $384 +$13 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $992 +$3 +0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $98 +$2 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $714 +$8 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $9 +$1 +7%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $120 +$1 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $95 +$5 +5%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $201 +$5 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $89 −$24 -27%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $401 +$10 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$15 -15%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $100 +$9 +10%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $200 +$15 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $300 +$6 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $198 +$7 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $387 +$8 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $200 +$4 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $100 −$27 -27%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $196 +$4 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $250 +$9 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $200 +$3 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $198 49m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $96 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $925 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $322 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $11 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $97 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $94 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $200 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 17h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 95¢ $95 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $200 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $200 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $165 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $3 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $483 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $147 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $70 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $156 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $200 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $91 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $97 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1119 history records