Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:14:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x6875…fd80 other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate25%18W / 53L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 67% −$14
politics 21% −$15
other 9% +$10
sports 1% +$46
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$4
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 +3.7% -6.2% 10% 5% -8.9%
≤90d 57 +13.0% +2.3% 25% 19% -8.1%
all 71 +10.4% -0.1% 25% 15% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 15% -9.4%
10% -9.6% 15% -18.1%
15% -18.4% 15% -26.0%
20% -26.4% 13% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses18 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage610d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $6 +$4 +76%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $128 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $237 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $9 +$7 +76%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $111 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $109 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $227 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $111 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 25 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $117 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $114 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $111 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 23 $120 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $111 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $43 +$1 +3%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 +$4 +70%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +86%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 +$4 +48%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$9 +165%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $8 +$8 +89%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 16h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 16h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 43h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 44h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $82 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 3d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 3d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 10d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $6 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 14d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $24 16d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $24 16d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $16 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.71 · official $116.71 (match) · 328 history records