Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6874…2097 crypto 1974 markets active 2d ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$285 (+3%) realized +$285 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%947W / 1024L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$125
other 5% −$32
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +40.6% +27.2% 50% 50% +70.1%
≤30d 9 -3.1% -12.3% 33% 33% -16.3%
≤90d 1971 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 48% -11.0%
all 1971 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 48% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 48% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 48% -19.5%
15% -31.0% 47% -27.3%
20% -37.8% 46% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$285
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses947 / 1024
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1971 / 1974
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1971 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $26 −$6 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $14 −$13 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $18 +$15 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $3 −$2 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $4 +$6 +170%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $5 −$4 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $6 +$7 +114%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $4 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $7 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $1 +$9 +666%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $6 −$3 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $5 +$14 +290%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $3 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $4 +$8 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 24 $4 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 24 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 24 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 23 $6 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 23 $1 +$1 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 23 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 23 $4 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 40¢ $2 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 14¢ $5 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 0¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 21d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 21d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 21d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 21d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 22d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 22d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 22d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 24d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $32 25d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 25d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 26d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 29d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 29d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $0 29d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 29d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 29d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 32d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 32d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 32d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 32d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 32d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $11 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records