Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

68 0x6872…0621 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$13 (-20%) realized −$2 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-36.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	2	-29.9%	-36.5%	0%	0%	-34.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.5%	0%	-34.9%
10%	-42.6%	0%	-41.2%
15%	-48.2%	0%	-46.9%
20%	-53.2%	0%	-52.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -30% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$2 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage

Net worth$38

Realized−$2

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage109d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$26	$24	−$2 (-8%)
New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	13¢	10¢	$10	$7	−$3 (-27%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	18¢	10¢	$12	$6	−$6 (-47%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March?	Mar 07	$8	−$4	-47%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Mar 07	$9	−$1	-13%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	6¢	$27	2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$12	108d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March?	SELL Yes	1¢	$4	108d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	SELL Yes	2¢	$8	108d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	2¢	$9	108d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March?	BUY Yes	2¢	$8	108d
New pandemic in 2026?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	108d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.53 · official $37.53 (match) · 7 history records