Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
68 0x6871…e9dc sports 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$144 (-1%) realized −$134 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%40W / 65L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$357est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$2,463
14 days−$2,463
30 days−$2,463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,195
other 19% +$828
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -6.6% -15.5% 40% 40% -28.4%
≤30d 43 -6.6% -15.5% 40% 40% -28.4%
≤90d 105 +5.9% -4.2% 38% 38% -10.8%
all 105 +5.9% -4.2% 38% 38% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 38% -10.8%
10% -13.4% 38% -19.3%
15% -21.8% 38% -27.1%
20% -29.4% 36% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$351 vs −$222 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses40 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$357
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage46d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 53¢ 66¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 33¢ 24¢ $73 $52 −$21 (-29%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $51 +$51 +101%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 +$29 +57%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 22 $75 −$73 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 22 $75 −$73 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $67 +$122 +181%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $68 +$325 +481%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $405 −$109 -27%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $404 +$221 +55%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 21 $407 +$472 +116%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $406 −$400 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $405 +$296 +73%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 20 $361 −$355 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $404 −$400 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $72 +$320 +446%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $304 +$262 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $404 +$168 +42%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $404 +$184 +46%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 19 $299 −$295 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 18 $407 +$601 +148%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $405 +$297 +73%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $405 −$400 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 18 $508 −$508 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $509 −$509 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 18 $154 −$154 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Jun 18 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Club Libertad win on 2026-05-19? Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-17? Jun 18 $204 −$204 -100%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-20? Jun 18 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-12? Jun 18 $205 −$205 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 17 $608 +$721 +119%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $304 +$188 +62%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $557 −$550 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $202 +$218 +108%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $200 +$600 +299%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $361 +$276 +76%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $203 −$200 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $205 +$215 +105%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 21 $202 −$202 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 20 $206 −$205 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $51 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 49¢ $51 13h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $51 13h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 63¢ $51 13h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 51¢ $51 13h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $51 13h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 53¢ $51 13h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 22¢ $75 44h
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Toronto Tempo 13¢ $75 44h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 33¢ $74 44h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 43¢ $297 3d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $41 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ $406 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $701 3d
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 39¢ $361 3d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 46¢ $407 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $404 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $405 3d
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Washington Mystics 17¢ $68 3d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 35¢ $67 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $404 3d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 60¢ $299 4d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $305 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 68¢ $404 5d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $304 5d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 70¢ $404 5d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $153 5d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $405 5d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $405 5d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 18¢ $72 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.14 · official $163.14 (match) · 341 history records