Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:52:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x686e…b721
other · 48 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$35 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage570d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $91 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $17 $0 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $7 +$9 +114%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $73 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $79 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $76 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $77 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $76 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 09 $6 +$5 +89%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 +$8 +165%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $9 +$9 +108%
Sabres vs. Senators Apr 06 $7 +$7 +89%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $34 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 02 $51 $0 +0%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 05 $97 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $95 +$3 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 17 $13,531 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $23 −$2 -6%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $12 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $2,132 −$8 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 78% −$14
politics 13% −$8
other 5% +$5
sports 2% −$23
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% +$3
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 41h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 43h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $7 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 10d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 10d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $13 11d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $13 11d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 12d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 19d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 20d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 20d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 21d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 32d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 32d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 46¢ $7 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -21.2%
≤30d 13 -7.8% -16.6% 8% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 37 +1.7% -8.0% 22% 14% -10.4%
all 47 +1.2% -8.5% 26% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 11% -9.7%
10% -17.2% 11% -18.3%
15% -25.2% 11% -26.2%
20% -32.6% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.30 · official $31.30 (match) · 228 history records