Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x686b…a44f crypto 1035 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized −$5 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate53%544W / 483L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day78.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$31
14 days−$130
30 days−$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$198
world 4% +$4
tech 1% +$5
other 1% −$14
politics 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -4.7% -13.8% 68% 60% -11.5%
≤30d 880 -24.3% -31.5% 50% 29% -14.5%
≤90d 1027 -19.5% -27.2% 53% 31% -12.8%
all 1027 -19.5% -27.2% 53% 31% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 31% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 17% -21.1%
15% -40.5% 4% -28.7%
20% -46.4% 3% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses544 / 483
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1027 / 1035
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day78.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1027 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 85¢ 86¢ $187 $187 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $89 $93 +$4 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 88¢ 84¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 88¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 98¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+39%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 70¢ 92¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 79¢ 81¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.61 · official $357.55 (match) · 3500 history records