Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x6868…24f0 other 314 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$802 (-4%) realized −$955 · open +$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%140W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$4,007now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$105
14 days+$208
30 days−$733
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$108
sports 25% −$507
tech 2% −$476
world 1% −$68
crypto 1% +$25
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +126.4% +104.8% 60% 47% +0.5%
≤30d 116 +32.5% +19.8% 52% 40% -16.7%
≤90d 129 +24.5% +12.7% 50% 39% -14.6%
all 291 +7.8% -2.5% 48% 42% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 42% -15.4%
10% -11.8% 34% -23.5%
15% -20.4% 25% -30.9%
20% -28.2% 20% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$40 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$4,007
Realized−$955
Unrealized+$153
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses140 / 151
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions23
Markets (closed)291 / 314
History coverage196d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $750 $835 +$85 (+11%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $730 $725 −$5 (-1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 38¢ 60¢ $385 $602 +$217 (+56%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $210 $195 −$15 (-7%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $300 $175 −$125 (-42%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $184 $165 −$19 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $159 $162 +$4 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $75 $108 +$32 (+43%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 98¢ $94 $98 +$4 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $112 $96 −$16 (-14%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $91 $92 +$0 (+1%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 87¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $87 $80 −$6 (-7%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $77 $74 −$2 (-3%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 68¢ $71 $68 −$2 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $88 $66 −$22 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $52 $62 +$10 (+18%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $35 $50 +$15 (+44%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $186 +$14 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $92 +$8 +8%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $116 −$16 -14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $38 +$12 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$95 +1900%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $29 +$71 +250%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +42%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $83 +$17 +20%
Will India win? Jun 08 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $7 +$95 +1276%
Will England win? Jun 07 $80 +$20 +24%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 02 $89 +$5 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $52 +$17 +33%
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 01 $273 −$273 -100%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $255 +$744 +292%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $26 +$74 +291%
Will New Zealand win? May 29 $137 +$63 +46%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 27 $157 −$155 -98%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? May 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 25 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $33 +$67 +206%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $73 +$27 +38%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 +$96 +2330%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $105 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 1h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 1h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 92¢ $92 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $25 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $43 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 19h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 83¢ $83 23h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 25h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 94¢ $94 25h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $96 25h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 77¢ $78 25h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 88¢ $88 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 76¢ $4 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 76¢ $1 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 76¢ $7 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 76¢ $27 26h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 67¢ $20 26h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 67¢ $13 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 92¢ $92 26h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 44h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 44h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,007.32 · official $4,007.32 (match) · 814 history records