Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6868…a5a5 world 49 markets active 1d ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$6
other 17% $0
politics 13% +$1
sports 6% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 29% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -10.5%
all 49 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -10.0%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.6%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage266d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $75 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $79 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $60 −$4 -7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $46 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $26 −$1 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 09 $6 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $5 $0 +3%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Sep 28 $5 $0 -6%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 27 $3 $0 -5%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 27 $29 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 26 $21 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 24 $25 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 24 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $3 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $17 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 40h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $42 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $12 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $6 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records