Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6868…5198 weather 424 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (184 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,858 (+48%) realized +$13,929 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%175W / 234L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day184.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$2,787
other 4% −$289
crypto 1% +$54
sports 0% +$34
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (184 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 -8.6% -17.3% 36% 29% +7.8%
≤30d 409 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 32% -1.0%
≤90d 409 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 32% -1.0%
all 409 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 32% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover184.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 32% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 24% -10.5%
15% -26.3% 20% -19.1%
20% -33.6% 16% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$23 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized+$13,929
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses175 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)409 / 424
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day184.5
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 409 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $38 $47 +$9 (+24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $37 $44 +$8 (+20%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $31 $34 +$3 (+9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $28 $33 +$5 (+17%)
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $43 $30 −$12 (-29%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $22 −$7 (-24%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $32 $18 −$14 (-44%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $5 −$35 (-88%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Hong Kong have less than 350mm of precipitation in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$28 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $172 +$20 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $47 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $174 +$117 +67%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 12? Jun 16 $0 $0 -86%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 2? Jun 16 $13 −$7 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 7? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 30? Jun 16 $57 −$47 -83%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 5? Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 16 $34 −$7 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 4? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 4? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 16 $86 −$57 -66%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on May 31? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 12? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 1? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -71%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $22 +$48 +223%
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $20 −$16 -79%
Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -93%
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $400 +$101 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $378 +$328 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$7 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $124 +$24 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $108 −$6 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$10 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15 Jun 16 $21 +$21 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 30m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 62¢ $30 32m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 43m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 69¢ $145 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $74 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 80¢ $291 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 48¢ $48 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 29¢ $29 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $54 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $108 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 42¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.29 · official $360.29 (match) · 3500 history records