Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:41:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6866…28cd other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$18 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%23W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$200
7 days−$79
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$131
sports 9% +$30
crypto 8% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -25.0% -32.1% 41% 38% -13.5%
≤30d 67 +3.1% -6.7% 34% 33% -9.8%
≤90d 67 +3.1% -6.7% 34% 33% -9.8%
all 67 +3.1% -6.7% 34% 33% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 33% -9.8%
10% -15.6% 27% -18.4%
15% -23.8% 27% -26.3%
20% -31.3% 24% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$24 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses23 / 44
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage14d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 48¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $81 +$358 +442%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$17 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $91 +$48 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$79 +158%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $87 +$7 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $58 +$29 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -82%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +262%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 26h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 38h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 38h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $81 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $91 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $87 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $58 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 5d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.38 · official $139.45 (match) · 97 history records