Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6865…7fc2 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% $0
world 27% −$1
politics 21% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 6% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 4% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 0% -9.9%
all 43 -0.8% -10.3% 30% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage272d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $28 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $16 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 02 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 27 $25 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 27 $1 $0 -24%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 22 $29 $0 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Sep 21 $3 $0 -7%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $27 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $26 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $2 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $14 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $16 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $30 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $30 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $30 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $27 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $28 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $16 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 20d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $6 248d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.30 · official $27.30 (match) · 128 history records