Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x6863…86d7
crypto · 1537 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$345 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$345 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$345
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses903 / 726
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1629 / 1537
History coverage21d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day111.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 1629 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days−$213
14 days−$238
30 days−$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Under 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Under 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5 Under 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Under 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% −$107
sports 37% −$19
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 92¢ $5 50m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 89¢ $9 50m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 56m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 90¢ $0 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 89¢ $9 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 91¢ $9 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 55¢ $5 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 90¢ $9 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 92¢ $5 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 89¢ $5 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 4h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 55¢ $5 4h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 89¢ $6 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 89¢ $9 4h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 91¢ $9 4h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 90¢ $9 4h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 89¢ $9 4h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 89¢ $9 4h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 90¢ $9 5h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 89¢ $9 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $6 7h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $6 7h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 8h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 89¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 288 -32.1% -38.5% 57% 39% -21.8%
≤30d 1629 -6.7% -15.6% 55% 44% -15.6%
≤90d 1629 -6.7% -15.6% 55% 44% -15.6%
all 1629 -6.7% -15.6% 55% 44% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover111.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 44% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 29% -23.7%
15% -31.1% 22% -31.1%
20% -37.8% 16% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.56 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records