Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:47:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x6863…300b crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,287 (-9%) realized −$3,287 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%33W / 28L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$606per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$285est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,302
7 days−$1,411
14 days−$2,491
30 days−$2,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$1,153
crypto 22% −$2,035
other 15% −$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -23.9% -31.2% 46% 43% -14.8%
≤30d 39 -18.0% -25.9% 49% 46% -16.8%
≤90d 61 -11.9% -20.3% 54% 48% -18.0%
all 61 -11.9% -20.3% 54% 48% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 48% -18.0%
10% -28.0% 38% -25.9%
15% -34.9% 33% -33.0%
20% -41.3% 18% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$420 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses33 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$285
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage35d
Avg bet$606
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,716 +$784 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $506 +$301 +60%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $204 −$32 -16%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $506 +$250 +49%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -46%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2,779 +$328 +12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $206 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,945 +$885 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,515 −$879 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2,213 −$1,155 -52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $410 +$51 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $504 −$491 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $410 −$192 -47%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,009 +$413 +41%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $456 +$244 +53%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $200 −$190 -95%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,133 +$236 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $509 −$189 -37%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$139 -68%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,622 +$1,232 +76%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $740 −$729 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,511 +$463 +31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,536 −$832 -33%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $498 −$498 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,130 +$870 +41%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,017 −$806 -79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,516 −$1,516 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $108 +$22 +20%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,004 +$132 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $306 −$300 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $202 +$91 +45%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$45 -91%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $318 +$82 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$402 +197%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $203 −$12 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 17 $1,134 −$1,134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 17 $414 +$426 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 17 $227 +$112 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 17 $318 −$318 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 17 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 17 $103 +$62 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 17 $219 +$29 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 17 $313 −$123 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 17 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $506 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,716 5h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $172 25h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 26h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 88¢ $756 28h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 58¢ $506 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1,548 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 89¢ $2,779 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $223 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,831 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,945 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $636 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,515 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $204 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 77¢ $1,038 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $2,213 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $214 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $504 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $247 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $88 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records