Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
68 0x6861…b317 other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$902 (-3%) realized −$885 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%130W / 121L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$744now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days−$550
14 days−$349
30 days−$567
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$1,501
sports 17% −$276
crypto 5% +$133
world 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +0.3% -9.2% 59% 50% -14.3%
≤30d 70 -3.2% -12.4% 61% 47% -11.1%
≤90d 245 -12.0% -20.4% 52% 43% -13.5%
all 251 -12.1% -20.5% 52% 43% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 43% -13.5%
10% -28.1% 33% -21.8%
15% -35.0% 22% -29.3%
20% -41.4% 12% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$59 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$744
Realized−$885
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses130 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage102d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $762 $744 −$17 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $852 +$29 +3%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $112 +$43 +38%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 22 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $556 +$81 +14%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $405 +$4 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $252 −$38 -15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $572 +$268 +47%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $370 −$151 -41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $984 −$100 -10%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $173 +$84 +49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$62 +61%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $252 −$11 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $602 +$85 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $343 +$261 +76%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $246 +$97 +40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $232 +$14 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $364 −$35 -10%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 −$3 -2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $171 +$68 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$39 -39%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$25 -50%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $177 +$59 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$28 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$60 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$39 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $155 +$48 +31%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $751 −$645 -86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,204 −$480 -40%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $171 +$63 +36%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $404 +$192 +48%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $504 +$48 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $879 +$52 +6%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $612 +$208 +34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$144 -71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $519 +$295 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,351 −$831 -62%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $898 +$67 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $474 +$237 +50%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $201 +$29 +14%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $280 +$121 +43%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $373 +$154 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $282 +$91 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $238 +$44 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $461 −$264 -57%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $427 +$36 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $770 41m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $771 46m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 82¢ $340 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $158 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $155 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $112 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $110 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $354 3h
Uruguay to win the second half? BUY Yes 61¢ $88 4h
Uruguay to win the second half? BUY Yes 69¢ $99 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 89¢ $484 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $304 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 43¢ $153 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $204 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $205 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $215 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $252 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $839 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $218 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 50¢ $218 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 83¢ $370 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $353 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $721 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $390 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 91¢ $291 29h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $257 29h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $173 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $744.44 · official $744.44 (match) · 583 history records