Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x685d…234f crypto 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%50W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day52.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$96
sports 1% −$25
other 1% +$20
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -1.3% -10.7% 59% 54% -14.7%
≤30d 85 -1.3% -10.7% 59% 54% -14.7%
≤90d 85 -1.3% -10.7% 59% 54% -14.7%
all 85 -1.3% -10.7% 59% 54% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 54% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 47% -22.9%
15% -27.1% 38% -30.4%
20% -34.2% 28% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$19 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses50 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage3d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day52.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $77 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$24 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$5 -16%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $13 +$20 +151%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $19 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $41 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records