Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x6859…fb90
sports · 332 markets active 1h ago
6.5score
+$13,060 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13,033 · open +$27
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$1,938
Realized+$13,033
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses163 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,197
Open positions7
Markets (closed)325 / 332
History coverage152d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 7 History 325 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,535
7 days+$8,255
14 days+$7,551
30 days+$4,363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $989 $983 −$6 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $335 $361 +$26 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $167 $167 −$1 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $123 $122 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $99 $111 +$12 (+12%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $99 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $99 $94 −$5 (-5%)
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 10¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Yes 52¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Stars vs. Wild Wild 43¢ $201 $0 −$201 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Under 52¢ $318 $0 −$318 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Canucks Ducks 12¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Wild Ducks 36¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks High Point Panthers 28¢ $265 $0 −$265 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 21¢ $444 $0 −$444 (-100%)
Creighton Bluejays vs. Connecticut Huskies Connecticut Huskies 51¢ $321 $0 −$321 (-100%)
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Tennessee Volunteers 55¢ $168 $0 −$168 (-100%)
Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-3.5) Iowa Hawkeyes 53¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Sabres vs. Canadiens Canadiens 58¢ $139 $0 −$139 (-100%)
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers Miami (OH) RedHawks 18¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Timberwolves 17¢ $303 $0 −$303 (-100%)
Spread: Tennessee Volunteers (-11.5) Miami (OH) RedHawks 47¢ $332 $0 −$332 (-100%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 24¢ $333 $0 −$333 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 39¢ $608 $0 −$608 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Avalanche 76¢ $989 $0 −$989 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,614 +$1,153 +71%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $171 +$336 +197%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $778 −$769 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $688 +$235 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $421 +$284 +67%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $225 +$178 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 12 $222 +$1 +0%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $323 −$316 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $421 −$416 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,515 +$1,850 +122%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $422 +$426 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,773 +$5,385 +194%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $321 +$308 +96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $781 +$855 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 08 $336 −$330 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $1,002 +$733 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $449 −$444 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $1,230 −$799 -65%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $422 −$416 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2,599 +$975 +38%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $314 +$404 +129%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,864 +$3,080 +165%
Set 1 Winner: Berrettini vs Arnaldi Jun 03 $404 −$404 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $408 −$404 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1,415 −$1,395 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Cobolli Jun 03 $200 −$93 -47%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $895 −$876 -98%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 03 $308 −$305 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $533 −$527 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $838 −$608 -73%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $852 +$453 +53%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $656 +$372 +57%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 01 $9 +$8 +96%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks May 31 $22 +$20 +89%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $656 −$656 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $247 −$243 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. May 31 $98 +$67 +68%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 31 $98 +$95 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $171 −$169 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants May 31 $98 +$75 +76%
Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Fonseca May 31 $1,002 −$992 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Cl May 31 $13 −$13 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies May 31 $68 −$68 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $332 +$427 +129%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 31 $222 −$220 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $445 +$213 +48%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $322 −$318 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $265 +$395 +149%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $394 +$620 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $107 −$102 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 92% +$13,538
other 8% −$506
world 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $896 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $126 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $769 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $422 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $778 18h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $171 21h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $169 21h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $688 22h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $225 23h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $421 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $70 36h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 51¢ $223 38h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $97 38h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $226 40h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $8 40h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $93 40h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $5 40h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $1 40h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $3 40h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $93 40h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $10 40h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $5 40h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $421 40h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $4 40h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $330 46h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $764 46h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $422 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +23.5% +11.7% 63% 58% +45.2%
≤30d 88 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 48% -1.7%
≤90d 244 +3.4% -6.5% 52% 51% +2.2%
all 325 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 50% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 50% +0.2%
10% -18.6% 50% -9.4%
15% -26.5% 48% -18.1%
20% -33.7% 46% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,937.91 · official $1,938.03 (match) · 1008 history records