Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x6855…0fe1 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$892 (-26%) realized −$892 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$377per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$1,052
14 days−$1,052
30 days−$1,052
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$1,265
crypto 15% +$167
sports 1% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -26.6% -33.6% 33% 33% -38.3%
≤30d 9 -26.6% -33.6% 33% 33% -38.3%
≤90d 9 -26.6% -33.6% 33% 33% -38.3%
all 9 -26.6% -33.6% 33% 33% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 33% -38.3%
10% -39.9% 33% -44.2%
15% -45.7% 22% -49.6%
20% -51.0% 22% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$298 vs −$324 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$892
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage22d
Avg bet$377
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$5 -65%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,967 −$1,884 -96%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$46 +150%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $817 +$673 +82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $510 +$173 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 25h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $250 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 76¢ $180 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $77 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $77 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,459 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $395 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $422 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $680 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $105 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $401 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records