Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x6854…46c7 politics 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$19
politics 36% −$19
sports 9% +$40
crypto 5% −$2
tech 4% −$2
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 142 +0.8% -8.8% 11% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.5% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×8.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage134d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $356 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $228 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $288 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $293 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $220 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $287 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 21 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $234 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $263 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $252 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $312 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,183 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $237 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 10 $233 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $321 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $246 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $273 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $326 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $282 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $274 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 01 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $338 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $322 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $243 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $277 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $246 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $300 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $279 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $330 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $307 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $338 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $682 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 25h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 40h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $43 42h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 22d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 22d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 23d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 24d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 25d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $228 25d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $228 27d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $288 27d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $288 27d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $319 27d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $319 28d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $237 28d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $237 29d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $293 30d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $293 30d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $286 30d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $286 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $220 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $220 31d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $287 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.95 · official $51.95 (match) · 407 history records