Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6854…67d0 weather 480 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,648 (+37%) realized +$4,613 · open −$965
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate24%48W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day169.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$551now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% −$2,753
other 20% −$1,042
sports 5% −$18
politics 5% −$48
tech 2% +$9
crypto 1% +$8
world 0% +$1
economics 0% −$13
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +22.4% +10.7% 22% 14% -59.4%
≤30d 202 -8.2% -17.0% 24% 16% -64.6%
≤90d 202 -8.2% -17.0% 24% 16% -64.6%
all 202 -8.2% -17.0% 24% 16% -64.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 16% -64.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 15% -68.0%
15% -32.2% 14% -71.1%
20% -38.8% 12% -73.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$21 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$551
Realized+$4,613
Unrealized−$965
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses48 / 154
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions496
Markets (closed)202 / 480
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day169.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 496 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 5¢ 85¢ $3 $61 +$58 (+1688%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? No 65¢ 100¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+54%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Carleigh Beriont be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? No 97¢ 97¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Steve Ballmer buy the Seattle Seahawks? Yes 4¢ 33¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+694%)
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Yes 2¢ 42¢ $0 $12 +$12 (+2492%)
Theo James announced as next James Bond? No 51¢ 96¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+88%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Yes 2¢ 36¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+1664%)
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 20¢ 55¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+175%)
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? No 29¢ 27¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Catalina "Titi" Tcherkaski win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2330%)
Will Cinzia Francischiello win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2325%)
Will Lola Tomaszewski win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2325%)
Will Manuel "Manu" Ibero win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2325%)
Will Brian Sarmiento win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2325%)
Will Luana Fernández win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2325%)
Will Lola "Lolo" Poggio win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2325%)
Will Eduardo Carrera win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2325%)
Will Jennifer "Pincoya" Galvarini win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2325%)
Will Franco Zunino win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2325%)
Will Yanina Zilli win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2325%)
Will Juan "Juanicar" Caruso win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2325%)
Will Emanuel Di Gioia win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2325%)
Will Nazareno Pompei win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2325%)
Will Franco Poggio win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 2¢ 49¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+2323%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $0 +$25 +19054%
Will PPI YoY be at least 8.0% in May? Jun 18 $0 +$2 +2897%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? Jun 18 $0 +$2 +2759%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 −$8 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $77 −$55 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $96 −$93 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$7 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $75 −$74 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $17 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $7 −$6 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $146 −$146 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $73 −$70 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 18 $37 −$22 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 −$2 -13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 51.5 million views on day Jun 18 $18 −$17 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52.5 and 53 million views on day Jun 18 $16 −$10 -61%
Will Ghana finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 18 $1 $0 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$10 +182%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 −$8 -22%
Will the Labour Party win fewer than 30 seats in the New Zealand House Jun 17 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the Labour Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Repr Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Labour Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Jun 17 $12 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legisla Jun 17 $7 −$5 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $28 −$27 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $42 −$40 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will two people dissent the July Fed decision? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -84%
Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $6 0m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 41¢ $3 0m
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? BUY No 29¢ $10 24m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 47¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on June 18 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $19 49m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? BUY No 11¢ $2 49m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $18 49m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 51m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on June 18 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 51m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 47¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $5 54m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 18? BUY No 58¢ $3 54m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 79¢ $12 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 18¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 20¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 76¢ $24 1h
Will Austria be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group S SELL Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 65¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 25¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group BUY No 23¢ $13 1h
Will Algeria be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group S BUY No 95¢ $51 1h
Will Jordan be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group St BUY No 98¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? BUY No 32¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? BUY No 26¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $550.60 · official $546.63 (match) · 3500 history records