Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:59:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
68 0x6853…f2b8 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$168 (-9%) realized −$253 · open +$85
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$230
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$33
other 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.0% -10.5% 60% 40% -12.3%
≤30d 5 -1.0% -10.5% 60% 40% -12.3%
≤90d 6 -17.5% -25.4% 50% 33% -13.8%
all 6 -17.5% -25.4% 50% 33% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 33% -13.8%
10% -32.5% 33% -22.0%
15% -39.0% 17% -29.5%
20% -45.0% 17% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$126 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$253
Unrealized+$85
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage87d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs EAC Rising (+1.5) EAC Rising 34¢ 50¢ $184 $269 +$85 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $318 +$230 +72%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 16 $363 −$319 -88%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $765 −$28 -4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $249 +$65 +26%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs EAC Rising (+1.5) BUY EAC Rising 34¢ $136 1h
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs EAC Rising (+1.5) BUY EAC Rising 35¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode SELL Walczaki 100¢ $548 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 58¢ $137 18h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 58¢ $17 18h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 58¢ $164 19h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) SELL KRÜ Blaze 30¢ $16 2d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) SELL KRÜ Blaze 30¢ $2 2d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) SELL KRÜ Blaze 30¢ $19 2d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 31¢ $357 3d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 30¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 53¢ $518 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 53¢ $200 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 53¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $640 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.93 · official $268.93 (match) · 53 history records