Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x684e…a070 crypto 1210 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,100 (-2%) realized −$1,100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%721W / 489L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 200d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,559
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -5.8% -14.8% 70% 70% -12.2%
≤30d 148 -5.8% -14.8% 70% 70% -12.2%
≤90d 148 -5.8% -14.8% 70% 70% -12.2%
all 1210 -25.6% -32.7% 60% 42% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 42% -21.2%
10% -39.2% 25% -28.8%
15% -45.0% 1% -35.7%
20% -50.4% 0% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$25 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$1,100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses721 / 489
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1210 / 1210
History coverage200d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1210 Trades
no open positions (401 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$23 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.76 · official $99.76 (match) · 2974 history records