Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
68 0x684c…92f4 other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 176d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$409 (+47%) realized +$424 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip
Net edge+53%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$497
7 days+$497
14 days+$497
30 days+$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$68
sports 30% +$435
politics 17% −$85
crypto 11% −$4
world 4% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+52.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +92.8% +74.4% 43% 43% +78.7%
≤30d 35 +92.8% +74.4% 43% 43% +78.7%
≤90d 35 +92.8% +74.4% 43% 43% +78.7%
all 47 +68.9% +52.8% 40% 40% +54.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.8% 40% +54.5%
10% +38.2% 36% +39.7%
15% +24.8% 36% +26.2%
20% +12.6% 36% +13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +98% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +152% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$11 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$424
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 53
History coverage176d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $55 $41 −$14 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$19 +1775%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$15 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 +$33 +649%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$68 +134%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$19 -63%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -9%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $46 +$58 +126%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$66 +130%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$84 +816%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$141 +344%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $37 +$115 +312%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$59 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Benin end in a draw? Dec 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Benin win on 2025-12-23? Dec 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Botswana win on 2025-12-23? Dec 23 $4 −$4 -93%
US strike on Syria by December 31? Dec 23 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 23 $151 −$85 -57%
Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed fake? Dec 23 $1 $0 -46%
Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real? Dec 23 $6 −$2 -40%
Will Egypt win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $36 +$45 +124%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $17 +$2 +14%
Will Zimbabwe win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $7 +$9 +129%
Will South Africa win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $5 +$16 +327%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06 BUY 1¢ $5 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $46 10h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 11h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $119 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 11h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $19 12h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 12h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $104 12h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06 BUY 2¢ $10 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $46 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.25 · official $56.75 · 158 history records