Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6845…c125 other 474 markets active 4h ago coverage 163d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 162d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,404 (+49%) realized +$21,426 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%177W / 449L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 163d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$7,780
crypto 23% +$1,638
sports 3% −$328
world 1% −$107
politics 0% −$196
weather 0% −$13
tech 0% +$46
finance 0% −$30
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -45.7% -50.9% 9% 8% -40.7%
≤30d 237 -30.0% -36.7% 14% 14% -17.0%
≤90d 387 -6.3% -15.2% 25% 21% -0.9%
all 626 +1.6% -8.0% 28% 24% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 24% +6.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 22% -3.9%
15% -24.9% 20% -13.1%
20% -32.2% 17% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$37 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized+$21,426
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses177 / 449
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)626 / 474
History coverage163d ⚠
Avg bet$92
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 626 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $315 $314 −$2 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $33 $20 −$14 (-41%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 411 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Santa deliver fewer than 7,900,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Zama launch a token in 2025? Jun 17 $30 +$32 +107%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on December 8? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Over $15M committed to the VOOI public sale? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 17 $40 −$41 -102%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Jun 17 $2 −$19 -914%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Jun 17 $4 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 17 $48 −$78 -160%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on October 20? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Pelicans vs. Warriors Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 7? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Warriors vs. Bucks Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 17 $91 +$256 +282%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 17 $5 +$38 +770%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 17 $25 −$6 -26%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) Jun 17 $37 −$58 -157%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in December 2025? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Jun 17 $29 −$52 -180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 21? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will APT. by Rosé and Bruno Mars be the #1 searched song on Google thi Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 5? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Jun 17 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 8? Jun 17 $14 +$12 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $323 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $323 34h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $109 39h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $45 39h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 39h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $89 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $118 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $19 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $37 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $34 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $167 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $234 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $34 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.78 · official $353.78 (match) · 3500 history records