Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:52:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6845…be3e crypto 1541 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d only
✗ bot/MM pace (452 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$199 (-5%) realized −$199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%590W / 656L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day452.0pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$635
other 21% +$383
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (452 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1246 +12.1% +1.4% 47% 46% -3.1%
≤30d 1246 +12.1% +1.4% 47% 46% -3.1%
≤90d 1246 +12.1% +1.4% 47% 46% -3.1%
all 1246 +12.1% +1.4% 47% 46% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover452.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 46% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 43% -12.3%
15% -17.2% 40% -20.8%
20% -25.3% 36% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses590 / 656
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1246 / 1541
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day452.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1246 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records