Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
68 0x6843…ac07 sports 48 markets active 21h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$89 (-1%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate69%33W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$418
7 days−$440
14 days−$394
30 days−$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$142
other 31% −$239
world 7% −$173
politics 2% +$139
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -14.8% -22.9% 64% 29% -25.2%
≤30d 32 -12.9% -21.2% 66% 31% -17.6%
≤90d 48 -0.9% -10.4% 69% 38% -11.2%
all 48 -0.9% -10.4% 69% 38% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 38% -11.2%
10% -18.9% 25% -19.7%
15% -26.8% 21% -27.5%
20% -34.0% 17% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$51 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses33 / 15
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage43d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $251 −$251 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $187 −$184 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $218 +$5 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $403 +$21 +5%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $418 +$4 +1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $373 +$21 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $61 +$14 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $470 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $10 +$21 +205%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +31%
Will India win? Jun 09 $352 +$22 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 05 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 05 $15 +$3 +19%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 05 $15 +$3 +19%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 05 $20 +$10 +47%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $396 +$2 +0%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $21 −$19 -92%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $21 −$20 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 30 $433 +$2 +0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $10 −$7 -67%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 22 $528 +$24 +5%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $504 +$27 +5%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 20 $12 +$15 +124%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $191 +$13 +7%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 18 $10 +$4 +42%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $50 +$9 +17%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 17 $412 +$50 +12%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $402 +$9 +2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $56 −$40 -72%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad - Complet May 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $17 −$10 -61%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 12 $20 +$39 +192%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $372 +$58 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $363 +$10 +3%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $10 +$7 +65%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 07 $329 +$29 +9%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $20 −$10 -48%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $32 +$47 +145%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $155 +$139 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $187 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $221 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $218 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $403 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $422 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $394 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 97¢ $24 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $373 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 83¢ $30 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 77¢ $30 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $82 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $352 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $439 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 4d
Will India win? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 10d
Will India win? BUY Yes 93¢ $201 10d
Will India win? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 10d
Will India win? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 10d
Will India win? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 10d
Will India win? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 10d
Will India win? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records