Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:49:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

68 0x6842…b520 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$26 · open −$20

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate55%11W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$46per market

Trades / day4.4pace

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-7.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+60.7%	+45.4%	100%	100%	+13.5%
≤30d	20	+2.1%	-7.6%	55%	45%	-11.7%
≤90d	20	+2.1%	-7.6%	55%	45%	-11.7%
all	20	+2.1%	-7.6%	55%	45%	-11.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.6%	45%	-11.7%
10%	-16.5%	40%	-20.1%
15%	-24.6%	30%	-27.8%
20%	-32.0%	20%	-34.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -55% → late +60% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.91 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$395

Realized+$26

Unrealized−$20

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses11 / 9

Open positions5

Markets (closed)20 / 25

History coverage8d

Avg bet$46

Trades / day4.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	71¢	72¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$100	$96	−$4 (-4%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$100	$86	−$14 (-14%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$15	$14	−$1 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$302	+$73	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$5	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$2	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$16	+296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$12	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 16	$25	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Jun 16	$53	−$10	-19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 16	$27	+$49	+182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Jun 16	$25	+$6	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Jun 16	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Jun 16	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Jun 16	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 16	$27	−$27	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 16	$24	−$23	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$2	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 16	$52	−$21	-40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Jun 16	$30	−$23	-78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$6	+56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3	BUY Yes	1¢	$104	1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	26¢	$102	1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$101	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	41¢	$102	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	80¢	$302	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	SELL Up	3¢	$6	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$5	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$26	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$25	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$26	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	SELL Down	66¢	$42	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$26	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	SELL Down	10¢	$75	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$27	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	SELL Down	98¢	$31	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$25	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$26	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$26	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$26	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$27	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$24	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	SELL Down	67¢	$28	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$26	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$27	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.06 · official $395.06 (match) · 53 history records