Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:57:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
68 0x6840…12c1 sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,251 (-19%) realized −$1,257 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$590
7 days−$590
14 days−$1,739
30 days−$1,470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$1,523
other 40% +$154
world 5% +$76
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 37 -28.7% -35.5% 43% 41% -38.7%
≤90d 47 -24.0% -31.2% 45% 43% -28.8%
all 55 -26.0% -33.1% 44% 42% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 42% -29.1%
10% -39.5% 38% -35.9%
15% -45.3% 27% -42.1%
20% -50.7% 20% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$91 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$1,257
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 31
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage102d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 57¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 56¢ $96 $101 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $597 −$590 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $298 −$294 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $281 +$17 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$22 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $34 +$10 +29%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $48 −$47 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$45 -89%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs Jun 13 $131 −$131 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $406 −$406 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $25 +$9 +35%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$113 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $98 −$63 -64%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $41 +$36 +89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $99 +$36 +37%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$3 -6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $201 +$49 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $51 −$40 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $105 −$99 -94%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $57 +$18 +30%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $15 +$11 +71%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $102 −$97 -95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $47 −$21 -45%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $51 −$35 -69%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $371 +$233 +63%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $226 +$146 +65%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $194 −$192 -99%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $204 +$222 +108%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $299 +$107 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou May 01 $329 +$101 +31%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $203 +$115 +57%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $97 −$86 -88%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: Both Teams to Score Apr 17 $61 +$39 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $49 +$68 +140%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $98 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $203 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $597 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 45¢ $100 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $298 12d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $298 12d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $281 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 79¢ $123 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $114 12d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $44 13d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $48 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 13d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 77¢ $34 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 97¢ $34 13d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $25 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 13d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $36 13d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $77 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 13d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $41 14d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $5 14d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 96¢ $135 14d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $99 14d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $98 14d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 58¢ $48 14d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $51 14d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 14d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.43 · official $300.67 (match) · 112 history records