Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x683d…3254 crypto 601 markets active 2d ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%562W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day52.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$15
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -6.6% -15.5% 72% 9% -9.6%
≤30d 601 -0.8% -10.3% 94% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 601 -0.8% -10.3% 94% 6% -9.5%
all 601 -0.8% -10.3% 94% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 6% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses562 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)601 / 601
History coverage13d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day52.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 601 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.60 · official $0.00 · 1241 history records